How Many Hypotheses Fail Before You Check Your Theory?

Read this very fascinating article.

Late last year, the animal evolutionary tree quaked at its root. A team led by Joseph Ryan, an evolutionary biologist who splits his time between the National Genome Research Institute in Bethesda, Md. and the Sars International Center for Marine Molecular Biology in Bergen, Norway, analyzed the genome from a comb jelly,  Mnemiopsis leidyi, a complex marine predator with muscles, nerves, a rudimentary brain, and bioluminescence, and found that the animals may have originated before simple sponges, which lack all of those features.

You might make a note of how many times their entire hypothesis turned out to be wrong and had to be completely revised.  Nothing wrong with that, hypotheses are meant to be revised.  But at what point do you notice that our hypotheses are so wrong it seems to indicate you have a fundamentally flawed understanding about something further back?  And how is it that no matter how many times you are dead wrong in your guesses about how something happened, you never question your assumptions about what your first guess, which is conjecture and assumptions and has never been witnessed, that the event and process you imagine even  happened in the first place?


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Cultural Intelligence

Listening to Customs of the World: Using Cultural Intelligence to Adapt, Wherever You Are

I got it from Audible with one of their special 2 for 1 deals for a credit I had- not exactly free, but I didn’t pay the full price, either.  I almost never do.

He tells an interesting story about a group of pastors from three different countries he met with and they discussed the story of the PRodigal Son.  Don’t go look it up, yet. Just review it in your mind briefly and answer this question:

Why did the Prodigal Son end up with the pigs?

The pastors were American, Russian, and Tanzanian.  Here are their answers, and you can probably guess which answer came from the Americans.

Because there was a famine.

Because nobody would give him anything to eat.

Because he squandered his inheritance.

Who was right?

Luke 15-

12 And the younger of them said to his father, Father, give me the portion of goods that falleth to me. And he divided unto them his living.

13 And not many days after the younger son gathered all together, and took his journey into a far country, and there wasted his substance with riotous living.

14 And when he had spent all, there arose a mighty famine in that land; and he began to be in want.

15 And he went and joined himself to a citizen of that country; and he sent him into his fields to feed swine.

16 And he would fain have filled his belly with the husks that the swine did eat: and no man gave unto him.

17 And when he came to himself, he said, How many hired servants of my father’s have bread enough and to spare, and I perish with hunger!

So who was right?  ALL of them!  Who was only partially correct?  ALL of them!

The point of the lecturer is that our culture doesn’t just influence how we behave, it influences what we *notice.*


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Susan Rice, Unmasking, and the Media

Susan Rice Rice is the Obama official who loudly and publicly praised Bowe Bergdahl for his “honorable service” & claimed he was captured “on the battlefield.”

She carried water for Hilary Clinton on Benghazi, telling the public that it was a spontaneous riot in response to a video when Obama and Hilary and Rice already knew it was a planned terrorist attack.

Two weeks ago she said she did not know anything at all about any unmasking. Now it’s ‘Oh,that unmasking, but I didn’t leak anything.’ Somebody did. She should know who. And why would we believe somebody who just two weeks ago denied what she admits now?

Lemon, Sciutto, and Cuomo instruct public to just ignore a major news story.

10 Questions a journalist would ask, but Andrea Mitchell did not.

Mike Cernovich broke the story (the NYT had ben sitting on it a couple of days). Here’s a disturbing account:

“Former President Barack Obama’s national security adviser Susan Rice ordered U.S. spy agencies to produce “detailed spreadsheets” of legal phone calls involving Donald Trump and his aides when he was running for president, according to former U.S. Attorney Joseph diGenova.

“What was produced by the intelligence community at the request of Ms. Rice were detailed spreadsheets of intercepted phone calls with unmasked Trump associates in perfectly legal conversations with individuals,” diGenova told The Daily Caller News Foundation Investigative Group Monday.

“The overheard conversations involved no illegal activity by anybody of the Trump associates, or anyone they were speaking with,” diGenova said. “In short, the only apparent illegal activity was the unmasking of the people in the calls.””

She abused government power, using it to illegal gather intelligence on a political campaign. There’s no way she did this on her own.

Keep in mind she is married to ABC News Producer Ian Cameron.

In an interview with Democrat operative pretending to be a reporter Andrea Mitchell:

On Tuesday, Mitchell asked Rice if she had ever unmasked the identities of Tump transition members “to spy on them and expose them.”
“Absolutely not for any political purposes,” Rice said in a heavily caveated response.
She went on to explain that while an individual within the intelligence community could ask for a person’s identity, their names typically would not be spread. She did not say whether or not the broad dissemination of names after they had been unmasked in an intelligence report occurred.
“There’s no equivalence between so-called unmasking and leaking,” she said, apparently implying that while any alleged unmasking was proper, any leaking of the information would not be. “The effort to ask for the identify of an American citizen is necessary to understand the intelligence report in some instances.”
She did not explain why the information would have been masked by intelligence agencies in the first place if it were deemed by them to have any intelligence value.
Rice also said the pace of surveillance of members of the Trump transition team was “accelerated” after the election.
“Yes, there was a pace of reporting that accelerated as the intelligence community got more and more information on that [Russia’s influence on the election] and shared it with U.S. officials,” Rice said.
Later in the interview, Rice refused to commit to testifying under oath about her role in unmasking the identities of Trump transition team members who were surveilled by the Obama administration.

It never happened, there’s no evidence, it’s not a story, nothing improper happened, it’s still not a a story but here’s the main character of the nonstory for an interview where we encourage her to share her unchallenged side of the events that never happened and aren’t a story anyway.
Also, we asked an un-named but close friend of hers who says there’s nothing to the story, so obviously, it’s false.

Wow. How Cernovich found out. Must reading.

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Psychological and Physical Mutilation are Sacraments of the Left

“The idea that anything needs fixing inside a transgender person is anathema to big media. Time calls transgender rights “America’s next civil rights frontier.” The New York Times has, in its own words, “forcefully” advocated a transgender “crusade,” with former Times editor Andrew Rosenthal calling those who question the transgender movement “ignorant, stupid people.” This year, National Geographic joined the crusade, dedicating its first issue to the emerging “gender revolution.”
What’s missing from these stories, however, are the silent laments of individuals who now see their transgender experience as psychological and physical mutilation.
Walt Heyer, a 76-year-old ex-transgender (see “Walt’s story”) who speaks publicly about his regret, says he gets regular emails from despairing transgender men and women who found him through his website Many underwent irreversible surgery and now regret it. They write him horrified and helpless: What do I do now? I feel like dying.
Heyer said every single person who contacts him reveals some kind of traumatic background and psychological scars. Their heartbreaking stories align with Heyer’s own personal experience that “transgenderism is an umbrella term for a group of mental disorders that have not yet been treated.” And the consequences are devastating: According to studies, suicide rates are 20 times higher among transgender adults who undergo hormone therapy and sex reassignment surgery. Meanwhile, a 2014 study found that 63 percent of patients diagnosed with gender dysphoria (a condition in which patients feel conflicted about their biological gender) had at least one co-occurring mental disorder, and 33 percent had major depressive disorders.”

More here.

The culture promoting transgender rights isn’t helping. It’s killing. It’s wounding, damaging, smugly and willfully ignorant and ultimately, it’s pushing people off a cliff rather than offering a helping hand.

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When should you believe a campaign?


Scott Pelley: You wrote in August a story about Hillary Clinton’s medical condition the headlines said, “Hillary Clinton has Parkinson’s disease. [Physician] confirms.” That’s quite a headline.

Mike Cernovich: Yeah, Dr. Ted Noel had se-sent a story to me anonymously, that I checked out, analyzing her medical condition. And —

Scott Pelley: It isn’t true.

Mike Cernovich: How do you know?

Scott Pelley: Well, she doesn’t seem to have any signs of Parkinson’s disease.

“Mike Cernovich: She had a seizure and froze up walking into her motorcade that day caught by a citizen journalist.

Scott Pelley: Did you, well, she had pneumonia. I mean —

Mike Cernovich: How do you know?

Scott Pelley: Well, because that’s what was reported.

Mike Cernovich: By whom? Who told you that?

Scott Pelley: Well, the campaign told us that.

Mike Cernovich: Why would you trust a campaign?”


Transcript of 60 MInutes interview with Mike here.
More by Ace at this link
And why would you trust a Pelley, who is so gullible about what the HIlary campaign told him?  Particularly when the Hilary campaign reported half a dozen other things, including direct contradictions that she was sick at all, before finally claiming pneumonia?
Do I think she has Parkinson’s?  I have no idea.  I do think she is unwell and the campaign lied to us.  Actually, that’s not accurate.  I think she is unwell and we *know* the campaign lied to us multiple times about her health and other issues and the press willingly carried her water and licked her feet for her.
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